Advisory

Valuations you can actually transact.

Most advisory valuations are theoretical. Ours are built by someone who has run origination desks and priced these structures for a living — which is why they hold up when you take them to market.

Service lines

What we do

01

PPA structuring & asset tolling valuation

Including for IRS tax equity opinions. Proprietary models built for wind, solar, CCGT, battery storage, carbon CCS/DAC and green hydrogen — developed over more than fifteen years.

  • Capacity tolling and PPA valuation
  • Bridge and forward-starting PPAs
  • Pre-pays and embedded financing structures
  • Revenue puts and guarantee structures
  • Reliance certificates available for financing parties

02

Carbon & renewable energy markets

Fundamental modeling, hedge structuring and regulatory insight across every primary North American market.

  • Supply/demand models built through 2030
  • Forward price forecasts through 2040, updated quarterly
  • Scenario analysis covering regulatory and legislative change
  • Price forecasts and active trading advice
  • Market construct and regulatory support

03

Hedge structuring

Innovative structures using a network of market participants and partners, allowing cash-flow risk management out through ten years.

Derivative tools with embedded optionality often provide better risk management than dealing with the underlying market alone — reducing rather than increasing risk.

04

Environmental trading & origination desk

Not classic consulting — we help you stand up and run the desk, embedding as trading book manager across origination and regulatory alongside your own staff.

Our ongoing advisory work is what gives the desk an edge: we see these markets from both sides.

05

Market entry & set-up

A complete build-out for firms entering North American carbon markets.

  • Fundamental supply/demand modeling
  • Regulatory guidance and risk analysis
  • Risk parameters and scenario models
  • Trading platform set-up (ICE & Nodal)
  • CITSS and LCFS account set-up
  • Broker and FCM relationships
  • Training and knowledge transfer

06

Adjacent capabilities

Significant experience in contracting, hedging and structuring, asset divestiture and acquisition, legislative liaison, special-situation workouts and restructuring, fundraising and fund management.

We can act as either a primary resource or a secondary backup to your internal team.

Method

How we build a forecast

“Our price forecasts are based on well-developed supply/demand models, scenario analysis to cover potential regulatory/legislative changes and an intuition born from a long record of covering and transacting in these markets.”

When the market moves, it matters why — and how to take advantage of the move. We also model complicated derivative tools with embedded optionality, which in many cases provide better risk management than the underlying market alone.

We maintain a broad network of stakeholders: utilities, industrials, private pools of capital, environmental justice advocates, and governmental and regulatory staff.

Engagement

How we work together

Alpha Inception can structure work agreements as a fixed-price solution, a monthly retainer to provide advice on a regular basis, or hourly consulting fees — and is happy to structure fees to be lower up-front where there is a back-end sharing of upside or an incentive mechanism tied to performance.

ModelBest for
Fixed priceA defined deliverable — a valuation, a model, an opinion for financing parties.
Monthly retainerOngoing market advice, an on-call resource for your desk or investment committee.
HourlyEpisodic questions, second-opinion work, backup to an internal team.
Incentive-linkedLower up-front fees against back-end sharing of upside or performance.

We retain ownership of our methodologies and models; clients receive a perpetual licence to use the deliverables. Model outputs form the deliverable rather than the models themselves.