Recent-grad unemployment
The single most sensitive early indicator in the book — entry-level hiring is where the squeeze shows up first, long before the headline rate moves.
Will AI Take My Job? — companion page
Updates since the last edition.
The book made specific, dated predictions and told you to check them. This is where you check them. Every source is free and public — you do not have to take anyone's word for anything, including the author's.
The scoreboard
The 6-, 12- and 18-month test
These are the book's own numbers, published in the first edition. They are reproduced here unchanged. As each checkpoint comes due, the actual result gets added — including when it goes against the forecast.
| Checkpoint | Recent-grad unemployment | Humanoid robots (cumulative, global) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now (June 2026) | ~5.6% | ~30,000 | baseline |
| +6 months (Dec 2026) | 5.8–6.6% | 60,000–110,000 | not yet due |
| +12 months (Jun 2027) | 6.5–8.5% | 150,000–350,000 | not yet due |
| +18 months (Dec 2027) | 8.0–11.0% | 350,000–800,000 | not yet due |
“Checkable predictions beat vague warnings. If most move the way the model expects, take the rest of the analysis seriously. If they do not, the framework was too pessimistic — hold it to account.” Chapter 3
The sources
Where to find every signal yourself
Straight from the book: “All free, all public. Bookmark the ones you care about.” Every link the book points you to, in one place, kept current.
| Indicator | Publisher | Go and check |
|---|---|---|
| New-grad unemployment | NY Fed — The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates | newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market |
| Overall and youth unemployment | Bureau of Labor Statistics — monthly jobs report | bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm |
| Humanoid robot deployments | International Federation of Robotics — World Robotics | ifr.org/world-robotics-reports |
| Tech and software job postings | LinkedIn Economic Graph; Indeed Hiring Lab | economicgraph.linkedin.com · hiringlab.org |
| AI-cited layoffs | Challenger, Gray & Christmas — job-cut report | challengergray.com |
| Robot cost trajectory | Tesla and Figure investor updates; Goldman research | ir.tesla.com · figure.ai/news |
| AI usage by occupation | Anthropic Economic Index (quarterly) | anthropic.com/economic-index |
| The latest research debate | Yale Budget Lab; Stanford Digital Economy Lab | budgetlab.yale.edu · digitaleconomy.stanford.edu |
These are third-party sites. Alpha Inception does not control them and is not responsible for their content. If one of these links has moved or died, tell me and I will fix it here.
Two numbers
If you only track one thing
Humanoid deployments
The physical-world counterpart. The book's fast-track threshold is cumulative deployments blowing past a million by the end of 2027.
“You don't need to be an economist to track this yourself. Two numbers tell you most of what matters.”
Updates log
What's changed since the book went to print
Corrections, new data, and revisions to the analysis. Newest first.
No updates yet
The first checkpoint falls in December 2026. When it does, the result gets posted here — whether it supports the book's forecast or not.