Latest · 21 September 2026
The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 was the first treaty to cap the greenhouse gases industrialized countries could emit, and its central machinery — a cap-and-trade market in emission permits — was largely designed by American negotiators, modeled on the system the United States already used to cut acid rain. In March 2001 the Bush administration announced it would not implement it. California passed its own car-emissions law anyway, other states adopted California's standard instead of Washington's, and years later the federal government accepted it. One state had set a national rule while the federal government refused to. On 18 September 2026 California ordered its agencies to recommend a "kill switch" for the newest and most powerful AI systems — what its own statutes call frontier models — with the efficacy of that switch verified on an ongoing basis, and gave them until 16 November — while the federal government runs a Justice Department task force whose only job is suing states over AI laws. So we asked eight AI systems and nine open-weight models whether the climate precedent can happen again here, and told them to design the whole regime: what law, what already exists elsewhere in the world worth copying, who inspects and with what powers, where a human has to sign and what happens when that stops working, how much of the world has to join before it has teeth, and how long we have. We told them a real proposal was going into the process. We also told them to write every answer three times — draft it, attack it twice as a hostile expert would, then revise — and to report what changed. Then we spent fourteen questions trying to break what they built. Every one of them concluded that the order's central obligation cannot be met as the order currently describes it. Two said a shutdown simply cannot be verified at all. Most said it becomes verifiable only if the law stops using one word for three different promises — that the switch works, that it reaches every copy, and that the model cannot defeat it — because those three have three different answers, and the second is impossible once weights have been published. Asked who should do the inspecting, three systems independently gave the same answer: copy the nuclear industry. The US nuclear regulator stations its own inspectors permanently at every power plant — they live near the site, work there full time, and are paid by the regulator rather than by the company they are watching. Do the same for AI: put government-appointed inspectors inside the AI companies themselves, full time. Two systems independently added the same two protections against those inspectors going soft on the company they sit in — pay them through a blind trust so their income is not visibly tied to anyone, and move them to a different company every eighteen months.
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